Chapter 3
Decision Making
Success is not one great decision, but many good ones.
— Unknown
Backwards induction helps in strategy
From Thinking Strategically: start from your goal and reverse-engineer the choices to get there.
Game theory for real life
Consider how others will respond to your choices.
This helps in negotiations, leadership, and teamwork.
Predict and update heuristics
Superforecasting shows that making careful predictions and tracking outcomes improves accuracy over time.
Check for groupthink
Invite dissent quietly, challenge your plan as its devil’s advocate and add new angles.
Use nudges for better behavior
Subtle design changes (like default options) can steer decisions more effectively than direct mandates.
Feel free to share with your colleagues
Give feedback, ask questions or request new resources
